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Current CDC Infection Mortality Rate Ratios


Related CDC Documents 0 Comments 12/26/2020 

COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios

Posted By: Fielden Nolan (nolanf)

From: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

Table 1. Parameter Values that vary among the five COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios. The scenarios are intended to advance public health preparedness and planning.  They are not predictions or estimates of the expected impact of COVID-19.  The parameter values in each scenario will be updated and augmented over time, as we learn more about the epidemiology of COVID-19.  Additional parameter values might be added in the future (e.g., population density, household transmission, and/or race and ethnicity).

Parameter values Table 1
Parameter Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenario 5: Current Best Estimate
R0* 2.0 4.0 2.5
Infection Fatality Ratio 0-19 years: 0.00002
20-49 years: 0.00007
50-69 years: 0.0025
70+ years: 0.028
0-19 years: 0.0001
20-49 years: 0.0003
50-69 years: 0.010
70+ years: 0.093
0-19 years: 0.00003
20-49 years: 0.0002
50-69 years: 0.005
70+ years: 0.054
Percent of infections that are asymptomatic§ 10% 70% 10% 70% 40%
Infectiousness of asymptomatic individuals relative to symptomatic 25% 100% 25% 100% 75%
Percentage of transmission occurring prior to symptom onset** 30% 70% 30% 70% 50%

*The best estimate representative of the point estimates of R0 from the following sources:
Chinazzi M, Davis JT, Ajelli M, et al. The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak. Science. 2020;368(6489):395-400; Imai N., Cori, A., Dorigatti, I., Baguelin, M., Donnelly, C. A., Riley, S., Ferguson, N.M. (2020). Report 3: Transmissibility of 2019-nCoV. Online report
Li Q, Guan X, Wu P, et al. Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus-Infected Pneumonia. N Engl J Med. 2020;382(13):1199-1207
Munayco CV, Tariq A, Rothenberg R, et al. Early transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in a southern hemisphere setting: Lima-Peru: February 29th-March 30th, 2020 [published online ahead of print, 2020 May 12]. Infect Dis Model. 2020; 5:338-345
Salje H, Tran Kiem C, Lefrancq N, et al. Estimating the burden of SARS-CoV-2 in France [published online ahead of print, 2020 May 13] [published correction appears in Science. 2020 Jun 26;368(6498):]. Science. 2020;eabc3517.
The range of estimates for Scenarios 1-4 represent the upper and lower bound of the widest confidence interval estimates reported in: Li Q, Guan X, Wu P, et al. Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus-Infected Pneumonia. N Engl J Med. 2020;382(13):1199-1207.
Substantial uncertainty remains around the R0 estimate. Notably, Sanche S, Lin YT, Xu C, Romero-Severson E, Hengartner N, Ke R. High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2. Emerg Infect Dis. 2020;26(7):1470-1477 (https://dx.doi.org/10.3201/eid2607.200282external icon) estimated a median R0 value of 5.7 in Wuhan, China. In an analysis of 8 Europe countries and the US, the same group estimated Rof between 4.0 and 7.1 in the pre-print manuscript: Ke R., Sanche S., Romero-Severson, & E., Hengartner, N. (2020). Fast spread of COVID-19 in Europe and the US suggests the necessity of early, strong and comprehensive interventions. medRxiv.


   Posted 1-27-2021From: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fphar.2021.643369/abstract1Other, United States2Memphis VA Medical Center (VHA), United States3University of Tennessee Health Science Center (UTHSC), United States4Hackensack Meridian School of Medicine, Seton Hall University, United States5University of Texas Health Science Center, United States6Center for Balanced Health, United ...  READ MORE
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Ivermectin is effective for COVID-19: meta analysis of 24 studies

Early treatment is most successful, with an estimated reduction of 87%
Category: Treatment
- December 12, 2020See also Pierre Kory, M.D., Associate Professor of Medicine at St. Luke's Aurora Medical Center, delivers passionate testimony during the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee hearing on "Early Outpatient Treatment: An Essential Part of a COVID-19 Solution, Part II.Ivermectin is effective for COVID-19. 100% of studies report positive effe...  READ MORE
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Mask Science

Why they don't work and much more. PDF format.
Category: Downloadables
From: https://www.americasfrontlinedoctors.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Masks-Science.pdf Masks do not prevent virus respiratory illness. Size matters! Viruses are 50x smaller than bacteria and 1000x smaller than a hair ...  READ MORE
- Fielden Nolan (nolanf),  12/11/2020 
  

Face Mask Exempt Care

Freedom to Breathe: Wearing a mask or any other "face covering" is NOT a law
Category: Downloadables
Wearing a mask or any other "face covering" is NOT a law. Protect your freedom and personal liberty by knowing your rights. Use the below resources to understand any unlawful conduct. Memorize it and print the .pdf version to have it with you to be presented as necessary.   https://www.ftbagency.com/personal-tools...  READ MORE
- Fielden Nolan (nolanf),  12/09/2020 
   CBER Plans for Monitoring COVID-19 Vaccine Safety and EffectivenessDocument is in the .PDF format...  READ MORE
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   - December 7, 2020See attached .pdf document link.Evidence on the protective effect of mask use in community settings  At present there is only limited and inconsistent scientific evidence to support the effectiveness of masking of healthy people in the community to prevent infection with respiratory viruses, including SARS-CoV-2 (75). A large randomized community-based tr...  READ MORE
- Fielden Nolan (nolanf),  12/07/2020 
   - November 27, 2020From: https://assets.researchsquare.com/files/rs-100956/v1/682247ca-ef49-4d68-aa3f-493a8fc9a056.pdfSee Also: https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=240755Abstract Background: Up-to-date, there is no recognized effective treatment or vaccine for the treatment of COVID-19 that emphasize urgency around distinctive effective therapies. This study aims to evaluate the anti...  READ MORE
- Fielden Nolan (nolanf),  11/27/2020 
   - November 19, 2020A team of Irish medical and public health professionals recently published a White Paper entitled “COVID-19 Alternative Strategy: A Case for Health and Socioeconomic Wellbeing,” calling for an “evidence-based” approach to pandemic management. In the paper, the team provides a cost-benefit analysis of lockdowns and scrutinizes their overall efficacy while ...  READ MORE
- Fielden Nolan (nolanf),  11/19/2020 

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